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Lessons will be learnt
Ian Gallon
How many times have you heard this phrase? After thalidomide, after the miners strike, after murders by released psychopaths, after the failures in the education system, after the failures in the NHS, after the lack of WMDs, after the collapse of the financial system, after the disgrace of MPs’ expenses? No doubt you can think of many more such occasions. Apart from the words that are used, there is one thing that is common to all these cases. No-one ever shows any sign of having learnt anything! Despite this, there is always the chance that someone, somewhen, will learn and not make the same mistakes again. There is a chance that the financial services will be restructured to prevent economic bubbles, there is a chance that the NHS will eliminate waste and C.difficile, there is a chance that our children will get the education they deserve.
If we get it wrong about global warming and fail to limit the average temperature rise to about 3
0
C
, there will be no time to learn lessons, no chance to make corrections. We all know what is meant when people say that they have had positive feedback to some proposal and they naturally regard it as beneficial. Positive feedback in the world of science has a similar meaning, but is more sinister. The complex interactions of a number of physical effects lead to positive feedback that not only supports or amplifies the specific effects, but it also amplifies other effects. Beyond a certain stage the changes become mutually supportive and unstoppable. Each interaction accelerates the change and ultimately the rate of change is faster than mere humans can respond to.
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